Fire Alarm Control Panel -- Reliability of Function - Guess

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Guesses are sought from members of this forum possessing field experience in the reliability of fire alarm control panels. I have experience, but not as a full-time exclusive expert with panels. And my guess as to FACP reliability is but one. Some evidence suggests more guesses when averaged, are more accurate. I will share with this forum some published reliability data from FACP manufacturer’s that I know is hopelessly optimistic and based on sterile laboratory conditions extrapolated outward.

So, yes, guesses on FACP reliability.

What is the Probability of Failure on Demand* (this is different from Mean Time Between Failures) for a Smoke Control Panel in the following years of service?

PFoD* is defined as failure of any performance or any inaccuracy at time of demand OR any time prior to time-of-demand.
These are harsh definitions, but for the purpose of life safety, we need to have clear definitions.

Years after…PFoD* … PFoD*
commissioning … My guess … Your guess

1 … 0.1
3 … 0.08
5 … 0.18
10 … 0.25

Failure is guessed in 10% of FACP sometime in year 1 because some panels are commissioned and approved with errors
Failure is reduced between years 2 and 3 because those failures are debugged, but failing batteries become a rising point of failure
Failure between years 3 and 5 are due to batteries (as one point of failure), condensation/corrosion in humid places, insects
Failure after year 10 increases dramatically because of planned obsolescence

Your contribution to this effort will be documented or not, depending on your preference, the results will be collated and returned to the forum in format of a graph including a cumulative distribution function (guess) of FACP availability.

Thank you so much for your consideration, and I hope you take the time to contribute to life safety ! If you want to speak with me, my telephone number is below.

-SD
+420 722 141 478 (GMT + 1)